At the beginning of the year, the US Accounts Chamber conducted a regular audit by NASA and published the results on May 1.
The document is written in simple language and is an entertaining read. The Chamber of Accounts notes that the delay in terms of projects has increased, and the current recalculation of the cost of the Orion program does not allow us to estimate the increase in the cost of projects this year. But the main value of the document, in my opinion, is different - it vividly shows that complex and remarkable space technologies are growing under the conditions of constant overcoming of earth problems of the “details brought later” type, “may have damaged the rocket during transportation,” “the wrong voltage and burned the electronics "," damaged the engines, washing them. "
Assembling the James Webb telescope, photo NASA. The solemnity of the moment is saddened by the fact that soon they will find the washers and nuts that fell out of it.Small introduction
The NASA spacecraft passes a life cycle consisting of two large parts and seven stages.
In the first part, research is carried out, concepts and preliminary design are created. In the second part, the device is produced, assembled, started, running and stops functioning. Transition to each new stage occurs only after approval at a key decision point. Stages A and B form estimates of the cost and time of the project, which are fixed at point C. Projects have reserves for unforeseen problems, and for expensive projects worth more than $ 250 million, two types of reserves are allocated and documented - project and headquarters, which provide an estimated confidence in the success of the project to 50 and 70%, respectively.
Terms and cost
The graph shows the average appreciation (left scale, interest) and delay (right scale, months) of projects. By the way, one should not think that they necessarily turn out to be more expensive and take more time - four managed to meet both the price and the terms, and the recently launched
TESS managed to save almost $ 40 million and was completed two months earlier. In recent years, there has even been a trend to reduce unforeseen price increases and project delays, but this year the movement started in the opposite direction, mainly due to the James Webb telescope, the SLS rocket and the Orion spacecraft. Orion estimates are now recalculated, and updated figures will appear in June 2018, which prevented the Accounts Chamber from giving an accurate estimate of the price increase for that year.
As the reasons for the rise in prices and delays, the Accounts Chamber identifies three main ones. First, technical problems are superimposed by risky management decisions. For example, SLS was launched with only two percent reserves, in violation of instructions, requiring 20% for carrier rockets. It was also decided to install new equipment at the same time as the mobile installer was tested, and for several years work was done without PMB performance indicators. Secondly, problems arise during assembly and testing - here the most obvious example will be the James Webb telescope, which has almost reached the cost limit set by Congress, new difficulties arise during assembly and testing, and much work remains to be done. And, thirdly, there are projects that suffer from external causes. In general, the Chamber of Accounts concludes that the risks of continuing budget overruns and delays remain.
A separate chapter of the report is devoted to NASA problems with personnel. It turns out that 56% of NASA employees are over 50 years old, and this figure has grown by 7% over the past five years. 21% of employees are older than retirement age, and another 23% will reach the retirement age within five years. This has its advantages - the experience is well kept and transmitted, but the growth of middle age indicates a shortage of young people. There were problems with personnel at the rover 2020 and Europa Clipper, but, according to NASA, they are solved by increasing the priority of programs and the transfer of employees within the organization.
Earth problems
And now we will look at specific problems that arise during the implementation of projects.
Telescope James Webb . The contractor seriously underestimated the timing of assembly and testing. The work was more difficult than expected, and the design of the telescope does not allow easy access to the required points, which still slows down the matter. The contractor also overestimated staff reductions at the beginning of the fiscal year. They turned out to be smaller, so unforeseen large funds went to pay. The sad irony is that the extra people did not solve the problem of underestimating the labor-intensive work, but brought the financial limit of Congress expenses closer. Not without errors - a year ago it turned out that the cleaners used for flushing the engines had their orientation damaged. The replacement should have been made in February, but the technician mistakenly applied too much tension and burned the components of the orientation system. Replacing these components took another five weeks. As a result, the telescope has already exceeded the initial budget by 77%, and the time - by 71 months.
Already after the release of the report
, news
appeared that after transporting a partially assembled telescope between the acoustic and vibration tests, washers and nuts were found under it. Presumably, they spilled out of the solar screen.
Commercial Crew Program . SpaceX eliminates observations of the booster boost tanks and cracks in the engine turbo pumps. Boeing discovered the risk of damage to the parachutes with the container lid, the design is being analyzed, and in the worst case, it will have to be redone, and this may lead to a delay of six more months.
The Exploration Ground Systems project (launch sites for SLS, including a mobile transporter) rose in price by 15% and in terms of 19 months. Here, the complexity of creating software for the starting complex was underestimated, data processing requirements increased, unplanned reworked, and there could be a problem finding developers in the local labor market.
SLS caused problems with welding of tanks with a delay - the material turned out to be thicker than that used before, the welding machine had to be reconfigured, and this immediately necessitated the assessment of strength - did it decrease?
The Parker Solar Probe , a probe for exploring the Sun, can fly with fewer instruments than originally planned - the launch window is fixed, the following will not be soon, and the Solar Probe Cup has problems in its design. And one of the alloys went pollution of other units. Well, during the tests, three pyrobolts did not work, but it was easy to fix - they were simply installed incorrectly.
ICON (probe for the study of the ionosphere) suffered because of the launch vehicle. First, an incident occurred during transportation, I had to take the steps back for additional checks. Fortunately, no damage was found. But then a new problem appeared - one of the bolt cutters breaking the bolts that fasten the rocket to the launch facility did not pass the test. The investigation is ongoing, but the deadlines have already moved for 8 months.
For the device
ICESat-2 , which will have to study the ice caps of the Earth, the laser is a critical component. He was made in triplicate and brought to the test. Two were cracked, the third worked for 2300 hours. While thinking what to do, cracks in the fourth crystal were found on the stand of the technology demonstrator. As a result, the number of lasers on the device was increased from one to two, and they put two after the repair, which they additionally tested. But the dates have moved by 17 months.
Afterword
These stories - only the tip of the iceberg, a huge number of problems are caught without becoming famous in any report. And only complex, forcedly slow and cumbersome processes protect against the missiles and probes not being scattered on the way to the start. And the “new private owners” are not a panacea - with the increasing complexity of their tasks, they will have to implement similar approaches.