The other day, the division of Bloomberg New Energy Finance
published its report, which provides a forecast for the use of various energy sources in the next half century. As it turned out, most experts believe that for more or less significant changes will take about 33 years. But then the world will consume about 50% of "green energy".
No need to think that the world will immediately switch to photocells. Not at all, because they are far from beneficial everywhere, but only in places where there is a lot of solar radiation. By the way, the experts, apparently, do not welcome nuclear power too much, since they decided to almost eliminate the mention of it in the report. This is somewhat strange, since it is atomic energy that plays a huge role in many countries.
Now the cost of alternative energy sources is gradually decreasing, so that users of some regions may feel relaxed. According to these experts, by 2050, about 71% of all energy will be generated at alternative power plants. True, the report says little about nuclear power plants, which, by the way, it is still too early to write off accounts.
With regard to energy, the shift in the area of use of "green electricity" will happen soon. It may well happen that by 2050 green energy will occupy about 71% of the energy market.
A partly relatively inexpensive alternative energy price will be caused by lower prices for photovoltaic cells. Now this area is actively supported by many countries, including the United States. And photovoltaic cells become even less expensive over time. On top of that, one of the market participants said that by 2050 about $ 500 million would be invested in solar cells. Partly this money will be returned in the form of electricity generated by the users themselves.
According to the same report, natural gas will be used, but its consumption will not grow much. However, it is natural gas and batteries that will play a major role in smoothing the corners from the changes already mentioned above.
The overall scenario provides for a gradual increase in the number of electric vehicles. In 30 years, according to scientists, there will be so many electric cars that they can provide 3,461 terawatt-hours of energy to the network. But for foreign companies it was not easy, in fact, they both came and went.
It is clear that all these forecasts are based on certain prerequisites, including changes in legislation. For example, Donald Trump, President of the United States, ordered the Department of Energy to fully support coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants, despite their unprofitability. If the US government continues to pursue such a policy, forecasts may change.
By the way, not a small group of specialists works on forecasts. Data provided by 65 researchers who work in different fields. The current forecast shows data close to those contained in the
report of the International Energy Agency. Its experts gave a forecast of the development of the energy sector up to 2040. In particular, the IEA report said that the rapid spread of wind and solar power plants in India and China will contribute to the growth of the green energy market to 40% of the total.
Whatever it was, but it is still unclear how much the development of "green" energy will affect the process of global warming. According to BNEF, if development proceeds according to the above model, then greenhouse gas emissions will reach a peak by 2027, but then the volume of emitted gases will gradually decrease - by about 2% annually. Largely due to the fact that coal power stations will begin to close.
It is necessary to develop alternative energy now, not postponing it for later. If it is too late to tackle this problem, then the process of changing the environment will be irreversible, and it will simply be impossible to do anything with pollution of the atmosphere, lithosphere and hydrosphere. True, many experts believe that the point of no return has already been passed, and doing something late, you can only slightly slow down the process of future changes.